سیاستگذاریهای اقتصادی و مالی در حوزههای فوقالذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقهای و جهانی
EZATOLLAH TAYEBI; Teymur Mohammadi; morteza khorsandi; abdorasol ghasemi; mohammad sayadi
Abstract
The National Development Fund was established as a development fund with the aim of providing intergenerational benefits, preventing the spread of fluctuations in oil revenues to the economy, and also supporting the country's development plans. Despite this, until now, there has not been a detailed ...
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The National Development Fund was established as a development fund with the aim of providing intergenerational benefits, preventing the spread of fluctuations in oil revenues to the economy, and also supporting the country's development plans. Despite this, until now, there has not been a detailed evaluation of how the allocation of resources of this fund affects macroeconomic variables. However, by studying and examining the successful global models of such funds, in addition to the limited impact of this fund on the macro-economic variables in Iran, there are also flaws in the way its resources are allocated. Based on this, the main goal of this research is to design a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to evaluate the impact of the allocation of National Development Fund resources on macroeconomic variables with the Bayesian estimation approach using quarterly data for the period 2011-2021. The results of the simulation show that if the National Development Fund spends part of its resources on direct and indirect investment, although at the beginning of the period (about one year) its effects are the same as before (only facilities), but after that the level of production, capital and investment will increase, which will lead to higher economic growth. Also, the results obtained from the minimum variance portfolio method show that among the existing methods, buying shares of capital market companies directly and investing in various types of investment funds, can bring higher returns than the current method (facilities) for the Fund at a certain level of risk.
• سیاستگذاریهای اقتصادی و مالی در حوزههای فوقالذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقهای و جهانی
Abbas Memarnejad; sheyda Nematollahi Sarvestani; Teimor Mohammadi
Abstract
The implementation of the mechanism of carbon border adjustments or carbon tariffs as a tool to deal with carbon leakage and reducing the competitiveness of production, was implemented by the European Union in October 2023 under the transitional phase and it will be implemented under the definitive phase ...
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The implementation of the mechanism of carbon border adjustments or carbon tariffs as a tool to deal with carbon leakage and reducing the competitiveness of production, was implemented by the European Union in October 2023 under the transitional phase and it will be implemented under the definitive phase from January 2026. Some countries, including the United States of America and Japan, have also predicted similar policies. This is while developing and developed countries have committed to take measures to combat climate change and reduce carbon emissions based on the Paris Agreement. This shows the concern of countries applying carbon tariffs because of carbon leakage even after the creation of the Paris Agreement. Considering that the European Union has announced that it will first apply carbon tariffs to energy industries, this study uses the GTAP-E model to investigate the change in the amount of carbon dioxide emissions in Iran's industries as a result of the imposing of carbon tariffs by the European Union, the Japan, the United States of America and all regions on Iran's energy intensive industries. The statistical of the research includes 141 regions and 65 section in the GTAP10 data base that published in 2019. The estimation of the model shows that under all four scenarios, the amount of production and carbon dioxide emissions will decrease in the energy-intensive industries sector and the entire industries of Iran.
• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حاملهای انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Fariborz PARTOVIRAD; Teimor Mohammadi; abbas shkeri; morteza khorsandi
Abstract
Forecasting electricity demand is one of the most important issues of the electrical energy system. Considering the structural changes in electricity demand and the stylized facts of electricity consumption in different sectors of demand, forecasting the amount of electricity demand will clarify the ...
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Forecasting electricity demand is one of the most important issues of the electrical energy system. Considering the structural changes in electricity demand and the stylized facts of electricity consumption in different sectors of demand, forecasting the amount of electricity demand will clarify the prospects of changes in the Iran's electric energy system in the medium and long term. By using new approaches, this prediction will have higher reliability. In this research, using the state-space approach and combining it with Markov regime switching, the main sources of uncertainties were included in the model. By using the data of electric energy feed-in the system to supply electricity demand and the average real price of electricity and temperature and the number of customers in the ten-year period of 2013-2022, the parameters of the model were estimated based on the state-space approach and Markov regime switching. State-space approach in the form of time-varying parameters and Markov switching approach in the form of variance fluctuations were included in the model. The results showed that the model based on this integrated approach gives a more accurate prediction than the classical model of electricity demand. The standard error of the estimated equations is reduced to 0.1 (in the competing model, the standard error of the corresponding equation is 0.03, and in the integrated approach, it is 0.002 for peak and 0.004 off-peak periods). The sensitivity of electricity demand to the real price of electricity and temperature changes is decreasing and the demand for marginal costumer is increasing.
• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حاملهای انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
KHALED ALJOMAA; Teimor Mohammadi; Atefeh Taklif; Touraj Dehghani
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to compare the economic efficiency of Iran's petroleum contracts, buyback contracts, and production-sharing contracts. This study also determined the optimum path for production and drilling operations in the Yadavaran oil field which has special importance because it is ...
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The purpose of this study is to compare the economic efficiency of Iran's petroleum contracts, buyback contracts, and production-sharing contracts. This study also determined the optimum path for production and drilling operations in the Yadavaran oil field which has special importance because it is a joint field with Iraq. It was estimated using real field data and the SQP algorithm by MATLAB software. First, the objective function, the constraints of each contract model, and the cost function are defined and expressed based on field data. For the objective function, the oil price is determined based on the reference price scenario and based on the forecast of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Cao et al (2009) 's cost function model is also modified by using historical field data (first development phase data) to be applied to the study field. The results show that the most efficient oil contract is the Iran petroleum contract, with a low floor for capital costs and no limit to the number of drilled wells. it was proved that the buyback contract with the ceiling of capital costs incompatible with the recovery coefficient has recorded the lowest efficiency. Also, the Iran petroleum contract can be a good alternative to the buyback contract, because it can well solve the problems of the buyback contract, especially for joint oil fields where the priority of the objective function of the maximum cumulative production over the objective function of the maximum present value of the total profit is more desirable.
Narges Khaki; morteza khorsandi; Teymour Mohammadi; Ali Faridzad; Zahra Azizi
Abstract
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is one of the most important goals of the world’s energy and environmental policies. Even though fossil fuels are one of the most important factors in creating pollution, their role in the structure of production and economic growth cannot be ignored. Nowadays, ...
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Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is one of the most important goals of the world’s energy and environmental policies. Even though fossil fuels are one of the most important factors in creating pollution, their role in the structure of production and economic growth cannot be ignored. Nowadays, to measure economic growth, economists do not consider only the amount of production of goods and services, but also consider the structure of production of goods and services in terms of technical knowledge (technology level) used in them. Accordingly, in recent decades, the index of economic complexity has been proposed, and by calculating it the possibility of knowing the development of countries’ levels is provided. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of the economic complexity index on greenhouse gas emissions in some oil exporting countries in the period from 1995 to 2019 using the panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model. The results of the linearity test confirm the existence of a nonlinear relationship between the considered variables. Also, considering a transfer function with a threshold parameter that expresses a two-regime model is sufficient to specify the nonlinear relationship between the model variables. The slope parameter (transition speed) equals 3/1964. The test results indicate that in both regimes (first and second), the economic complexity index has a negative effect on the amount of greenhouse gas emissions
